Tuesday, November 4, 2008



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Oh, Chillicothe

So the day of the election was spent knocking on doors and making sure people were voting or had voted. I knocked on roughly 200 doors and spoke with so many people in both Hamilton and Chillicothe. James was in Carrolton today, while Liz was in Trenton, and Veronica was focusing on Chillicothe. And after it was much too dark to see the numbers on the houses we finally packed it in. And then we were done....

It was so strange to suddenly be finished. And then the waiting began.

The Chillicothe Democratic Headquarters slowly filled with people gathering around an old color tv to watch the results come in (as an aside...by filled I mean instead of having 8 of us here, we had about 25). Shortly after the local and Missouri polls closed a woman ran in out of breath saying that the results for our area, Livingston Co., had been posted and Obama had won Chillicothe by 1 vote. Liz, Veronica, and I raced across the street to see the posting for ourselves...after all of our work, walking
every street numerous times, talking, persuading, explaining, cajoling, arm twisting at times we said that it would be so fulfilling to have one by a single vote.

We waded into a crowd of locals right out of a Jimmy Stewart movie -- the big stone courthouse in the town square filled to overflowing with the people we'd been calling on: teachers and farmers, union workers eating homemade cookies, pastors, grocers, children playing on the floor...all of them watched the numbers come in underneath a big draped American flag. Unfortunately it wasn't to be. As the court clerk came down the granite stairs again and again to hand updates to the man running the board, the numbers slowly changed to show McCain winning 60% - 40%.

But back at our headquarters the mood was electric and it took very little time for us to come around and feel better again. We may have lost Livingston Co. and Missouri as a whole but we significantly improved the percentages for the state as a whole. There is no debate regarding that statement. Without all of the volunteers here the state would have been one of the few Republican blowouts.

And so we sat, stood, paced, laughed and nervously nibbled on the pies, cakes, brownies, and cookies that the local women had been putting in front of us all week.We watched as thousands of people in Chicago gathered together to celebrate history. We saw the beaming faces of the people in Los Angeles flocking together. Philadelphia, San Francisco, Miami, Boston, Columbus so many people gathering their collective selves shoulder to shoulder to share this historic moment in our nations history. They would always remember where they were, how they felt, the faces they saw, the people they embraced.

And here I was in Chillicothe, MO. The birthplace of sliced bread and the seat of Livingston County. I was here with Liz from DC, Veronica from Oakland, and James from San Francisco. And we were all here with fifteen diehard Democrats of this small rural town. And we were crying and embracing and so happy that we were about to burst.

And there was no where else I wanted to be.

Dreams From My Father

Stephen Roddick from the New Republic

I entered my Brooklyn voting booth this morning uncertain who would get my vote.

Let me explain. My father was a Navy pilot who attended the Naval Academy not long after John McCain. I grew up in Navy towns where you did not see your dad for six months at a time, you went to sleep wondering if he was safe, and you comforted your buddies when their fathers did not come back at all. When I was 13, my father did not come back; he was killed in a plane crash off the USS Kitty Hawk.

There are few things I know with certainty that my father would have done if he had lived. One would have been to vote for John McCain. As his only son, that seemed the least I could do for him.

But it wasn't that simple. I spent almost a decade living in Chicago, working in politics. I labored for black candidates in lost causes, not far from Barack Obama's district. I shed tears when they lost. I then worked on Capitol Hill for a Democratic predecessor of Obama's in the Senate, and, inexplicably, helped draft the first Senate prayer given by a Muslim, Wallace Mohammed.

For months, I watched the campaign develop with a sense of dread. McCain seemed like a lost, tragic hero more than a plausible president. Still, John McCain was my kin, in a sort of way. I bit my lip all fall. I watched the markets fall and McCain's botched response remove the last doubt that he was going to lose, perhaps badly. I avoided political conversations for the most part, but found myself at a friend's house on the Upper West Side watching the last debate with a group of Ivy Leaguers and policy wonks. The derision of McCain began early. After the 17th joke about his strange facial expressions, I left, telling my host that I didn't have a problem with folks not supporting him, but the vilification of a man who spent longer in a prison camp than Obama spent in the Senate wasn't how I wanted to spend my evening.

After that, I became more open about my McCain empathy. I argued how he had a proven record of working across the aisle and despises Bush and why his administration would be nothing like Bush's, particularly with heavy Democratic majorities in both houses. But I knew it was window dressing.

I just went to vote. The line snaked so long that I was able to concentrate on the excitement on the faces of African-Americans as they entered the voting booths with their children. I was more than a little envious of their joy. I wondered if the past was really past. Finally, I entered the booth, closed the curtain, and stared at the names. I stared so long that I could hear folks behind me begin to grumble. I delayed by individually pulling the Democratic levers for all the local offices. My finger went to McCain/Palin, but I didn't pull. I moved my hand over and grasped the Obama/Biden lever. I pulled it hard and departed. There were tears in my eyes.

Want an Eye Opener?

If there is one shocker on election night in the presidential race, cast your eyes to Georgia.

1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia.

3,301,875 total voted in Georgia's presidential race in 2004.

Let that sink in.

Good Mornin', folks....it's you're election day....let's go do it!

Monday, November 3, 2008

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National Polls

Live From the Ground

I'm getting alot of emails asking how things are going here in Missouri, so here's a little update to tide you all over.
The last 3 days have been spend canvassing like crazy while the nights are about entering data and making phone calls.
The area of the state we're in is very farm oriented, economically depressed, generally poor, and mostly genial.

I'm staying with some Obama supporters in Hamilton, MO which is about 25 minutes from Chillicothe. Dan and Kate have been so warm, welcoming, and spend their days canvassing the outlying rural areas of Hamilton. Here's a picture of their beautiful house:


I've personally canvassed about 200 different houses with many of the residents home, very opinionated, and well past the point of voter fatigue. The poll numbers are a very accurate representation of Missouri...one house will be McCain and the next will be Obama. I won't focus on the negative but I also won't sugar coat things either. People here can be very open about their racial biases (there are very few minorities here). I've had the sweetest looking grandmother types smile and giggle as they say, "Thank you for stoppin' by, but I don't vote for n***ers". Another woman told me, "I wouldn't vote to have a darky in my dog house; why would I elect one to be in the White House?" Today I has heckled by a man who followed me as I knocked on supporters doors to made sure they knew where their polling places were. As I drove away he threw a rock hitting my car and called me a "n****er lover".

On the flip side I'm finding a huge number of older people in their 70's and 80's who are excited and all smiles as they tell me how they can't wait to elect "that fine Obama". An older lady made my day just as I was finishing my route last night. She invited me in for some sweet tea and told me, "I've waited all of my 86 years to finally see this country accept a black man as a capable candidate for president and it brings tears to my eyes to think this might just happen before I die. I'm hopefully going to get to see the act of this country evolving".

I've yet to see a McCain volunteer or canvasser, but there is a steady stream of local volunteers for Obama here. They make us cookies, cakes, pies, muffins, and bring us dinner as we work late nights. Last night an amazing 86 year old volunteer named Mary had us over for a dinner of fried chicken, salad, potato salad, and tea. This is a volunteer from DC, Liz, with Mary:

Here's some of Mary's delicious food:


I'm leaving now to drive to a small town called Carrolton to canvas there and then it's back to Chillicothe to enter data and prepare for tomorrow! Please comment and remember that I love you all!

A Real Life Witch


Remember what Glenda the Good Witch said, "You have no power here! Now begone, before somebody drops a house on you!"

More Than Just Numbers

From Huffington Post:

From the beginning of the campaign, the people behind Barack Obama's bid for the presidency have been pretty adamant that one should expect big things from their ground game. They'd be up in all fifty states, socially networked, plugged in, and microtargeting their way to success.

Sean Quinn, along with photographer Brett Marty, have been in pursuit of the ground game, and they've been dropping by field offices for both candidates to take pictures and chronicle the activity. And if there's one thing that's been revealed, nearly consistently, in comparing the two operations, is that there seems to be no comparison:

The busiest McCain office we saw was in Arlington, at the national HQ, but tight security prevented us from getting any pictures. Ironically, that was our first full office, in our 11th battleground state.

Offices in Troy, Ohio were closed on Saturday October 11. With perfect coincidental timing, two elderly women dropped by to volunteer but found the office shut. At Republican state headquarters in Columbus later the same day, one lonely dialer sat in a sea of unoccupied chairs. In Des Moines on September 25, another empty office. In Santa Fe on September 17, one dialer made calls while six chatted amongst themselves about how they didn't like Obama. In Raleigh this past Saturday, ten days before the election with early voting already open, two women dialed and a male staffer watched the Georgia-LSU game. In Durango, Colorado on September 20, the Republican office was locked and closed. Indiana didn't have McCain Victory offices when we were there in early October.

In Cortez, CO, we had Republican volunteers pose for action-shot photos. The same in Española, New Mexico. Posed. For some time at the outset, we were willing to give Republicans the benefit of the doubt. They convinced us they were really working, and that we had just had unfortunate timing. It wasn't until the pattern of "just missed it" started to sound like a drumbeat in our ears that we began to grow skeptical. We never "just missed" any of the Obama volunteer work, because it goes on nonstop, every day, in every office, in every corner of America.

We found scattered nuggets of activity. Colorado Springs, Colorado held eight dialers and two front office volunteers. Albemarle County, Virginia had a busy office of 15 volunteers, and we reported that. Last night in Tampa, nine phonebankers were busy dialing at the Republican Party of Florida Hillsborough County HQ when we arrived at 8:00 pm. Seven dialers sat in McCain's Hickory, North Carolina office this past Saturday afternoon.

Those offices seemed busy to us, naturally, because they were explosively full relative to other offices we've stopped in on. But even the Colorado Springs office was dwarfed by the Obama Colorado Springs operation. These ground campaigns do not bear any relationship to one another. One side has something in the neighborhood of five million volunteers all assigned to very clear and specific pieces of the operation, and the other seems to have something like a thousand volunteers scattered throughout the country.

USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42%

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.

With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders' support is estimated to be:

• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.

CBS Poll: Obama Maintains 13 Point Lead

With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Why He's Winning

Over 80,000 Have Complained About Voting Problems

Today, Barbara Anwine of the Election Protection Coalition (1-866-OUR-VOTE), a nonpartisan group, told MSNBC about voter suppression tactics they have witnessed around the country.

The group says it has received over 80,000 voter calls at the Election Protection Command Center.

Some emerging trends:

- Broward County leads Florida in voter requests for assistance.

- Registration-related problems rank #1 in nearly every battleground state - hundreds of calls focus on that problem, most often in Texas, New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Florida, Colorado, and California

- Georgia voters are reporting more incidents of voter intimidation than any other state. Other reports of voter intimidation, scams or misinformation are also emerging in Ohio and Missouri.

- Florida voters rank #1 in requests related to criminal status and voting.

- Early voting problems are also being noticed, particularly Ohio, Missouri, Georgia, Florida and California

If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)

Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)

Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)

Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

On Meet The Press Sunday morning, Chuck Todd tells Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins all of those toss-ups, he'll still lose.

My Wife Made Me Canvass For Obama

CHARLOTTE, N.C. - There has been a lot of speculation that Barack Obama might win the election due to his better "ground game" and superior campaign organization.

I had the chance to view that organization up close this month when I canvassed for him. I'm not sure I learned much about his chances, but I learned a lot about myself and about this election.

Let me make it clear: I'm pretty conservative. I grew up in the suburbs. I voted for George H.W. Bush twice, and his son once. I was disappointed when Bill Clinton won, and disappointed he couldn't run again.

I encouraged my son to join the military. I was proud of him in Afghanistan, and happy when he came home, and angry when he was recalled because of the invasion of Iraq. I'm white, 55, I live in the South and I'm definitely going to get a bigger tax bill if Obama wins.

I am the dreaded swing voter.

So you can imagine my surprise when my wife suggested we spend a Saturday morning canvassing for Obama. I have never canvassed for any candidate. But I did, of course, what most middle-aged married men do: what I was told.

At the Obama headquarters, we stood in a group to receive our instructions. I wasn't the oldest, but close, and the youngest was maybe in high school. I watched a campaign organizer match up a young black man who looked to be college age with a white guy about my age to canvas together. It should not have been a big thing, but the beauty of the image did not escape me.

Instead of walking the tree-lined streets near our home, my wife and I were instructed to canvass a housing project. A middle-aged white couple with clipboards could not look more out of place in this predominantly black neighborhood.

We knocked on doors and voices from behind carefully locked doors shouted, "Who is it?"

"We're from the Obama campaign," we'd answer. And just like that doors opened and folks with wide smiles came out on the porch to talk.

Grandmothers kept one hand on their grandchildren and made sure they had all the information they needed for their son or daughter to vote for the first time.

Young people came to the door rubbing sleep from their eyes to find out where they could vote early, to make sure their vote got counted.

We knocked on every door we could find and checked off every name on our list. We did our job, but Obama may not have been the one who got the most out of the day's work.

I learned in just those three hours that this election is not about what we think of as the "big things."

It's not about taxes. I'm pretty sure mine are going to go up no matter who is elected.

It's not about foreign policy. I think we'll figure out a way to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan no matter which party controls the White House, mostly because the people who live there don't want us there anymore.

I don't see either of the candidates as having all the answers.

I've learned that this election is about the heart of America. It's about the young people who are losing hope and the old people who have been forgotten. It's about those who have worked all their lives and never fully realized the promise of America, but see that promise for their grandchildren in Barack Obama. The poor see a chance, when they often have few. I saw hope in the eyes and faces in those doorways.

My wife and I went out last weekend to knock on more doors. But this time, not because it was her idea. I don't know what it's going to do for the Obama campaign, but it's doing a lot for me.

Jonathan Curley is a banker.

Latest Electoral College Map

Click image to enlarge

McCain's Name Nowhere to be Seen at Palin Rally

POLK CITY, Florida (CNN) — At a boisterous Sarah Palin rally in Polk City, Florida on Saturday afternoon, one name was surprisingly absent from the campaign décor — John McCain’s.

Looking around the aircraft hangar where the rally took place, one could see all the usual reminders that it was a pro-McCain event. There were two large “Country First” banners hung on the walls along with four enormous American flags meant to conjure the campaign’s underlying patriotic theme. Many of the men and women in the audience wore McCain hats and t-shirts.

But on closer inspection, the GOP nominee’s name was literally nowhere to be found on any of the official campaign signage distributed to supporters at the event. Members of the audience proudly waved “Country First” placards as Palin delivered her stump speech. Those signs were paid for by the Republican National Committee.

The other sign handed out to supporters read “Florida is Palin Country,” but those signs were neither paid for by the Republican National Committee nor the McCain campaign.
...................

Does anyone else find it funny that McCain's low road VP pick is totally backfiring on him now...kinda like rats fleeing a sinking ship.

The State Of the Race

Washington Post

Barack Obama and the Democrats hold a commanding position two days before Tuesday's election, with the senator from Illinois leading in states whose electoral votes total nearly 300 and with his party counting on significantly expanded majorities in the House and Senate.

John McCain is running in one of the worst environments ever for a Republican presidential nominee. The senator from Arizona has not been in front in any of the 159 national polls conducted over the past six weeks.

Obama leads in every state that Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry won four years ago, which gives him a base of 252 electoral votes of the 270 needed to win. He also has leads of varying sizes in five states Bush won: Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. Were he to win all of those on Tuesday, he would claim the presidency with 291 electoral votes.

The tossup states include traditional battlegrounds such as Ohio, Florida and Missouri, as well as North Carolina, Indiana and Montana, which have been firmly in the Republican column in the past. They account for 87 electoral votes, and if Obama were to win several of them, his electoral vote total could push well into the 300s.